Trends is free while in Beta
25%
(5y)
33%
(1y)
48%
(3mo)

About Renewable Diesel

Renewable diesel is a drop in transportation fuel produced from renewable feedstocks (such as fats, oils, and greases) or sustainable biomass, offering lower lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions than conventional diesel and expanding as a mainstream alternative in trucking, aviation, and maritime sectors.

Trend Decomposition

Trend Decomposition

Trigger: Policy incentives and mandates to reduce transport emissions combined with rising oil prices fueling interest in cleaner, competitively priced diesel alternatives.

Behavior change: Fuel buyers and fleets increasingly prioritize low carbon diesel options and certify sustainability footprints for procurement.

Enabler: Advances in processing technologies (hydrotreatment and hydroprocessing) and scalable supply from major refiners, plus supportive regulatory frameworks.

Constraint removed: Access to cost competitive, low carbon diesel through established refineries and distribution networks reducing logistical barriers.

PESTLE Analysis

PESTLE Analysis

Political: Government decarbonization mandates and fuel standards drive demand for renewable diesel adoption.

Economic: Competitive pricing relative to traditional diesel as feedstock costs and processing efficiency improve.

Social: Increasing consumer and corporate emphasis on sustainability encourages fleet operators to switch fuels.

Technological: Mature hydroprocessing technologies enable scalable production and compatibility with existing engines and infrastructures.

Legal: Regulatory approvals and sustainability certification schemes shape market access and traceability.

Environmental: Lifecycle emissions reductions and potential for lower sulfur content contribute to environmental benefits.

Jobs to be done framework

Jobs to be done framework

What problem does this trend help solve?

Provides a lower emission, drop in replacement for diesel to reduce transportation sector carbon footprint.

What workaround existed before?

Separate high ethanol blends or biodiesel with limited compatibility; reliance on conventional diesel with higher emissions.

What outcome matters most?

Cost competitiveness and reliability (speed and certainty) of supply with verified emissions reductions.

Consumer Trend canvas

Consumer Trend canvas

Basic Need: Access to cleaner, compliant transportation fuels at scale.

Drivers of Change: decarbonization goals, oil price dynamics, availability of feedstocks, and refinery modernization.

Emerging Consumer Needs: Transparent carbon intensity, sustainable supply chains, and proven lifecycle benefits.

New Consumer Expectations: Consistent fuel quality, traceability, and robust environmental claims.

Inspirations / Signals: Corporate net zero commitments and government emission targets.

Innovations Emerging: Advanced hydrotreating catalysts, single asset integration in refineries, and EV flexible policy frameworks.

Companies to watch

Associated Companies
  • Neste - Leading producer of renewable diesel (Neste MY Renewable Diesel) with global supply and integrated value chain.
  • Renewable Energy Group (REG) - Major producer of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel through a large biorefining network.
  • World Energy - Producer of renewable diesel and other low carbon fuels with certification programs.
  • Valero Energy - Major refiner expanding renewable diesel production capacity across multiple sites.
  • Marathon Petroleum - Integrated energy company investing in renewable diesel production and refinery upgrades.
  • ADM (Archer Daniels Midland) - Global agribusiness and processing company involved in renewable diesel feedstock supply and production.
  • Cargill - Food and agricultural commodities company expanding renewable diesel feedstock access and partnerships.
  • Phillips 66 - Energy company developing renewable diesel projects and blending capabilities.
  • Topsoe - Catalyst and technology provider enabling efficient hydroprocessing for renewable diesel production.
  • TotalEnergies - Energy major investing in renewable diesel capacity and integrated low carbon fuels.